Luton

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1621 · #3 League One 21W–11D–14L · 74 pts In line Updated May 02, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened

Final: #7 of 24 in League One 74 pts · 21W–11D–14L · GD +12

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.

Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Luton?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 40 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Luton's results were 0.3% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketLutonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 42.5% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 50.0% 53.2%
Both teams to score 42.5% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 League One #3 1518 1620 1620
2024-25 Championship #12 1601 1601 1497
2023-24 Premier League #19 1478 1478 1310
2022-23 Championship #2 1552 1675 1662
2021-22 Championship #6 1532 1600 1576
2020-21 Championship #10 1532 1547 1512
2019-20 Championship #12 1350 1502 1502
2018-19 League One #2 1357 1715 1660
2017-18 League Two #2 1567 1703 1632
2016-17 League Two #2 1574 1611 1611
2015-16 League Two #8 1494 1554 1551
2014-15 League Two #12 1510 1617 1490
2008-09 League Two #13 1467 1524 1460
2007-08 League One #24 1515 1532 1334
2006-07 Championship #24 1508 1553 1307
2005-06 Championship #14 1529 1593 1483

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 at Bolton L Luton 30.8% · draw 31.2% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Barnsley W Luton 70.8% · draw 18.4% W ✓
Apr 21, 2026 at Rotherham W Luton 50.0% · draw 26.3% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Mansfield W Luton 36.8% · draw 30.7% D ✗
Apr 15, 2026 vs Northampton W Luton 82.0% · draw 11.4% W ✓
Apr 06, 2026 at AFC Wimbledon W Luton 36.7% · draw 30.4% W ✓
Apr 03, 2026 vs Peterboro W Luton 53.1% · draw 26.1% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 vs Stockport W Luton 40.0% · draw 30.6% D ✗
Mar 17, 2026 vs Exeter W Luton 57.2% · draw 24.6% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Wycombe L Luton 27.2% · draw 29.1% W ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/luton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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