Luton
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #8 of 24 69.1 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 24 in League One 74 pts · 21W-11D-14L · GD +12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Luton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 40 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Luton's results were 0.3% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Luton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.5% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League One | #6 | 1604 | 1604 | 1558 |
| 2025-26 | League One | #3 | 1518 | 1620 | 1620 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #12 | 1601 | 1601 | 1497 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #19 | 1478 | 1478 | 1310 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #2 | 1552 | 1675 | 1662 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #6 | 1532 | 1600 | 1576 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #10 | 1532 | 1547 | 1512 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #12 | 1350 | 1502 | 1502 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #2 | 1357 | 1715 | 1660 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #2 | 1567 | 1703 | 1632 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #2 | 1574 | 1611 | 1611 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #8 | 1494 | 1554 | 1551 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #12 | 1510 | 1617 | 1490 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #13 | 1467 | 1524 | 1460 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #24 | 1515 | 1532 | 1334 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #24 | 1508 | 1553 | 1307 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #14 | 1529 | 1593 | 1483 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/luton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/luton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>