Reading
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 24 in League One 63 pts · 16W–15D–15L · GD +4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Reading?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Reading's results were 3.2% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Reading | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 39.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #14 | 1480 | 1593 | 1476 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #8 | 1510 | 1580 | 1524 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #11 | 1479 | 1540 | 1510 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #23 | 1402 | 1522 | 1399 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #22 | 1474 | 1520 | 1397 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #13 | 1495 | 1614 | 1492 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #19 | 1449 | 1564 | 1444 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #19 | 1388 | 1492 | 1472 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #24 | 1555 | 1568 | 1382 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #3 | 1425 | 1619 | 1612 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #22 | 1419 | 1578 | 1373 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #22 | 1548 | 1566 | 1412 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #9 | 1656 | 1662 | 1557 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #1 | 1591 | 1729 | 1682 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #2 | 1506 | 1674 | 1621 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #7 | 1554 | 1602 | 1552 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #7 | 1684 | 1708 | 1572 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #1 | 1471 | 1761 | 1735 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Blackpool | W Reading 38.0% · draw 31.1% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Rotherham | W Reading 36.3% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Cardiff | L Reading 24.6% · draw 26.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Doncaster | L Reading 29.8% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Lincoln | L Reading 26.5% · draw 27.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Huddersfield | L Reading 24.1% · draw 28.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Wigan | W Reading 35.5% · draw 30.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Stevenage | L Reading 18.9% · draw 28.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Burton | L Reading 30.4% · draw 31.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Plymouth | W Reading 35.4% · draw 31.3% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/reading">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/league_one"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="League One title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/reading">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>