Sheffield Wednesday

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1635 · #1 League One 4W-3D-1L · 15 pts On script Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #2 of 24 76.8 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 8 matches

League title 19.5%
Promotion 47.2%
Automatic promotion 34.9%
Promotion playoffs 39.7%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Sheffield Wednesday?

On script 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sheffield Wednesday's results were 22.4% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketSheffield WednesdayLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 68.3% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 51.0%
Both teams to score 61.0% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #1 1615 1655 1635
2025-26 Championship #24 1482 1482 1264
2024-25 Championship #18 1567 1567 1466
2023-24 Championship #6 1408 1567 1567
2022-23 League One #3 1623 1769 1680
2021-22 League One #2 1653 1690 1660
2020-21 Championship #21 1450 1487 1405
2019-20 Championship #22 1553 1601 1380
2018-19 Championship #8 1508 1578 1530
2017-18 Championship #9 1553 1608 1546
2016-17 Championship #5 1563 1640 1600
2015-16 Championship #6 1507 1618 1560
2014-15 Championship #13 1497 1546 1494
2013-14 Championship #15 1494 1539 1449
2012-13 Championship #10 1443 1544 1509
2011-12 League One #1 1470 1691 1691
2010-11 League One #14 1520 1573 1459
2009-10 Championship #20 1505 1529 1424
2008-09 Championship #14 1536 1559 1510
2007-08 Championship #8 1552 1552 1523
2006-07 Championship #3 1528 1614 1600
2005-06 Championship #9 1502 1526 1526

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Huddersfield L Sheffield Wednesday 18.7% · draw 26.6% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Stockport W Sheffield Wednesday 42.0% · draw 30.2% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Wigan W Sheffield Wednesday 60.3% · draw 22.5% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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